In February 2023, steel market trend forecast

The core of the rise in steel prices in January is the driving of rising capital markets abroad and a good domestic macro situation. In the context of the gradual weakening of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike expectations, the prices of many foreign products, especially metal products, have risen relatively much. A relatively large driving effect; in addition, the domestic macroeconomic economic situation and market mentality are relatively good. After the impact of the overseas epidemic gradually dissipates, the market is relatively strong for the rapid growth of domestic economic recovery in 2023. At present The expected speed forecast of domestic economic growth in 2023 is about 5%, and it can reach 6%if optimistic. In addition, at the national conferences held at the national level, the policy trend of the economic growth in 2023 is still very obvious. As for how to go to the steel market, the focus needs to pay attention to several levels of factors. On the one hand, supply and demand is supply and demand. The fundamentals are officially working after the Spring Festival nationwide, but from the perspective of actual needs and changes in supply, it takes a certain time to return to a relatively good level, but from the perspective of the recovery of demand, this year From the government level, from the government level, from a large enterprise level at the rapid organization and re -production, the recovery of our later demand may be faster compared to previous years. In addition, from the perspective of supply, first of all, because the price of steel before and after the Spring Festival is relatively high, the enthusiasm of winter storage in the entire market is not high. At the same time, steel mills are generally in a loss state. of. In the case of low output, the inventory of the entire market, including the inventory of steel mills, should be said to have little growth after the Spring Festival.

In addition, there is another characteristic after the Spring Festival this year, because before the Spring Festival, from the social level, traders, especially some small and medium -sized households and retail investors, are relatively small. In the factory’s first -level agent, the structure of this inventory should be conducive to the stability of the market. At the same time, when the market ushered in the rise, it is more conducive to the rapid rise of prices. This is the entire steel and steel around the Spring Festival this year. From these two points, I think the overall market fundamentals will not be too bad. In addition, we need to pay attention to the impact of some changes. The price of raw materials has not changed much in January, the price of coke has fallen, and the profit of steel mills gradually reflects it. We need to pay attention to the profit of steel mills. A release of the output in the future. This is a factor that we need to consider that it may have a negative impact on the market later.

In addition, we need to consider some changes that may occur after the price of coal attachment, because the coking coal imported from Australia in the past two years will reach Hong Kong. In recent years, the relief of the relatively tight domestic coking coal resources will play a role in promoting, and it will also have a certain impact on the higher price of this coal glue. The influence of the price of coal glue in the later period will generally decline. For the perspective of cost support, it is an unfavorable effect on our steel prices.

In addition, some policies related to the Federal Reserve will be held in early February to hold a meeting of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate conversation in early February. Now the market is basically determined to raise interest rates. After the 25 base points are raising high -intensity interest rates, it should be said that for the market, it should be said that for the market, it should be said that for the market The 25 base point is a relatively acceptable interest rate hike. In the past month, the price of goods in foreign capital markets has risen. Amplitude. In addition, the later movement of the later stages revealed at the first meeting will be more eagle. If the eagle party market may have some negative effects, if it is partial pigeon, it is some positive impact. This is the market in February in February. Some favorable and sharp factors that pay attention to, as well as some uncertainties that may cause market changes. Overall, for the market in February, high shocks are likely to adjust in advance. There will be such a trend that will rebound in mid -to -late February, but in an allocation, we believe that the price level should not change much compared with the end of February, and it should be a high -level shock situation.